Selected sources

For parts of this book I relied extensively on work done by me, my colleagues and external contributors at Gavekal Dragonomics and the China Economic Quarterly. Normally this material is available only to paying subscribers, but the firm has kindly granted permission for all work cited in the book to be made freely accessible to the public. Links to these articles are arranged below, according to the chapter of the book in which they are first cited. Readers interested in the Gavekal Dragonomics research service may visit the website or contact


Chapter 1 – Overview: China’s Political Economy

Andrew Batson, “Is China Heading For the Middle-Income Trap?” Gavekal Dragonomics research note, September 6, 2011.


Chapter 2 – Agriculture, Land and the Rural Economy

Robert Ash, “A New Line on Food Security,” China Economic Quarterly (September 2014): 45-48.

Will Freeman, “How to Feed a Dragon,” Gavekal Dragonomics research note, February 16, 2013.

Thomas Gatley and Andrew Batson, “China’s Welfare State: Mission Accomplished?” Gavekal Dragonomics research note, March 19, 2013.


Chapter 3 – Industry and the Rise of the Export Economy

G.E. Anderson, “Fat Profits, Fat Failures,” China Economic Quarterly (June 2012): 43-47.


Chapter 4 – Urbanization and Infrastructure

Will Freeman, “High-speed Rail: The Iron Rooster Spiffs Up,” China Economic Quarterly (June 2010): 6-9.

Arthur Kroeber, Rosealea Yao and Pei Zhuan, “Housing: A Room of One’s Own,” China Economic Quarterly (December 2007): 53-58.

Rosealea Yao, “Housing and Construction Review,” Gavekal Dragonomics research note, November 2014.


Chapter 5 – The Enterprise System

Scott Kennedy, “Wanted: More Creative Destruction,” Gavekal Dragonomics research note, February 10, 2014.

Scott Kennedy, “Private Firms: Pink Capitalists in Bloom,” China Economic Quarterly (June 2012): 37-42.

Barry Naughton, “SOE Policy: Profiting the SASAC Way,” China Economic Quarterly (June 2008): 19-26.


Chapter 6 – The Fiscal System and Central-Local Government Relations

He Yuxin, “China Development Bank: The Best Bank in China?” Gavekal Dragonomics research note, July 1, 2010.

Janet Zhang, “The Magic Mountain: China’s Public Debt,” Gavekal Dragonomics research note, April 20, 2011.

Zheng Xinye and Zhang Li, “Fiscal Reform: A Better Way to Tax and Spend,” China Economic Quarterly (March 2013): 26-30.


Chapter 7 – The Financial System

Nicholas Lardy, “Financial Reform: All About Interest Rates,” China Economic Quarterly (March 2013): 21-25.

Chen Long, “The Emerging Strategy for Debt,” Gavekal Dragonomics research note, May 7, 2015.


Chapter 8 – Energy and the Environment

Angel Hsu, “A Real War, More Ammo Required,” China Economic Quarterly (September 2014): 10-17.

Michal Meidan and Rosealea Yao, “King Coal’s Long, Slow Decline,” China Economic Quarterly (March 2015): 28-34.

Calvin Quek, “Bringing Back the Blue Sky Days,” China Economic Quarterly (September 2014): 18-25.

Rosealea Yao, “Finding the Missing Coal,” Gavekal Dragonomics research note, December 3, 2015.


Chapter 9 – Labor and Demographics

Judith Banister, “Labor Force: No Need to Panic,” China Economic Quarterly (June 2012): 27-30.

Guo Zhigang, “Family Planning Policy: Too Few By Far,” China Economic Quarterly (June 2012): 22-26.

Arthur R. Kroeber, “The End of Surplus Labor,” China Economic Quarterly (March 2010): 35-46.

Wang Feng, “Demographic Transition: Racing Towards the Precipice,” China Economic Quarterly (June 2012): 17-21.


Chapter 10 – The Emerging Consumer Economy

Cui Ernan, “Consumer Outlook and Thematic Review,” Gavekal Dragonomics research note, November 2014.

Thomas Gatley, “China’s Missing Consumption,” Gavekal Dragonomics research note, July 2013.

Thomas Gatley, “Accelerating into Affluence,” China Economic Quarterly (March 2013): 46-50.


Chapter 11 – The Social Compact: Inequality and Corruption

Andrew Batson, “The Rise of the Middling,” Gavekal Dragonomics research note, October 10, 2012.

Andrew Batson and Thomas Gatley, “Inequality is Improving, Discontent Is Not,” Gavekal Dragonomics research note, November 4, 2013.


Chapter 12 – Changing the Growth Model

Andrew Batson, “Small Business to the Rescue?China Economic Quarterly (September 2014): 40-44.

Andrew Batson and Janet Zhang, “Capital Stock: How Much Is Too Much?China Economic Quarterly (September 2011): 46-49.

Victor Shih, “Local Government Debt: Big Rock Candy Mountain,” China Economic Quarterly (June 2010): 26-32.


Chapter 13 – Conclusion: China and the World

Arthur R. Kroeber, “Debt, Innovation and the Durable Dollar,” China Economic Quarterly (December 2008): 50-55.

Arthur R. Kroeber, “Financing China’s Global Dreams,” China Economic Quarterly (November 2015): 27-36.

Bradley C. Parks and Austin M. Strange, “Aid to Africa: Helpful or Harmful?China Economic Quarterly (June 2014): 29-33.

Tom Miller et al., “Investment Abroad: The Dragon Steps Out,” China Economic Quarterly (June 2014): 9-33.


Appendix – Are China’s Economic Statistics Reliable?

Carsten Holz, “Can We Trust the Numbers?” China Economic Quarterly (March 2014): 43-50.